Tuesday, September 23, 2008

US Economic Meltdown - Fall 2008

Looks like we have still not been able to reach the root of the market melt down. I have few questions that are still unanswered.

Q1 How is it possible that these fallen financial institutions did not have internal periodic escalations of deviations and outage

Q1A How is it possible that the precursors to bankruptcy was not tracked for last 52 weeks?

Q2 How is it possible that there were NO circuit breakers in transactions?

Q3 Did all these companies fail simultaneously in the periodic audits?

Q4 Did the audit agencies deviated too?

Q5 Who was tracking the quarterly results and were the share holders kept in dark?

Q6 Isn’t the federal government informed in advance of the financial slippage?

Q7 Who has gained most from the melt down?

Q8 Who will gain most from the recovery and bailout?

Many more …..I believe this melt down is deliberate. If not, then American economy has ended up as single largest casino bet in history.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

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Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Bachchans - The Non- Heros

The whole of India seems to be crazy about the Bachchans, be it senior Bachchan or junior Bachchan. Or is it the media, who has created them as the “Super Star of the millennium”, “Bollywood’s first family”, “The Iconic Legend” and so on.
Such tags should be associated with some iconic personalities, not with one who is associated with frauds of projecting himself as a farmer, but is not even aware of the plight of the Indian farmers. Had he been an icon, he would not have tried to grab a piece of agricultural land from farmer’s share, which is the only means of their livelihood.
Here, Mr. Amitabh Bachchan has a Rolls Royce, Mercedes, Land Rover, Bentley and many more. And on the other side is the farmer, who barely has food to eat.
For being called the “Legend”, what is the contribution of Big ��" B to the society? The star hunt programme, which made only one person ��" the hero (Chandrachud), out of hundreds of thousands of application??
The controversial Miss World Contest held in Bangalore???
The visits to Tirupati, to seek blessing for himself and his family?? Donating Rs. 5 crore to Tirupati, so that God blesses his family??? Visiting Vindhyavasini in UP with his family and to-be-daughter-in-law?? What message is he trying to spread in the society by demonstrating his superstitions?
By playing the roles in films where he has an extra-marital affair with a 16 year old girl at the age of 64, what message is he giving to the younger generations and the elderly people in the society?
The “ICONS” or “LEGENDS” are the one who would become somebody’s ideal in life and one would like to imitate them. When someone gets this status, his responsibility towards the society grows. He has to watch what he does in public life. People are watching him and he cannot say that such things are personal.
Have you ever heard of Amitabh Bachchan being associated with any social cause or donating money for any charity?
Then there is Jaya Bachchan, who is known for her “Office of Profit” saga in the Rajya Sabha. Are the Bachchans on some money making spree?
In what social benefit ways, is Jaya Bachchan contributing to the society by being the member of the Rajya Sabha, other than campaigning for Samajwadi Party?
And then comes, the newest Bachchan in the family…………Mrs. Aishwarya Bachchan. Jaya Bachchan says in one of the film award functions held in Malaysia that this girl with beautiful smile brings a lot of dignity to the family. Has this dignity been brought by smooching a co-star in a film, just a few days before being engaged to Abhishek Bachchan, for a scene which not at all demanded a kiss or smooch? Or by being known for her affairs with Salman Khan and Vivek Oberoi? What role has she played as “Miss World”, other then minting money for herself?
The Bachchan Father-in-Law is contesting a case of “Fraud” in UP court and the Bachchan Daughter-in-Law is defending a case of “Obsenity” in a Rajsthan court.
And they are the “First Family of Bollywood”.
And still, if you look at the media, you feel like these are the only people to talk about. When did we talk about our heroes at the border? Have we forgotten that we owe our lives to them? It is they because of whom we live in a free world.
Have we forgotten our sportsmen, who bring pride to the nation?
We should wake up and decide what substance matter is needed to be called as a “Legend” or an “ICON”??????

Pakistan - General Musharraf or Benezir Bhutto

The former Prime Ministers (PM) Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto together are together, in launching a campaign in Pakistan for restoring democracy. Both these PMs are unfortunately discredited leaders who have been branded as highly corrupt by General Musharraf. General knows well and rightly also that firstly these leaders will not be able to ignite sentiments of people of Pakistan against him and secondly US will not extend support to them as he is probably the best bet for US in the present circumstances. Musharraf also understands the mind of US President Bush who believes in famous dictum ‘I have no friend and I have no enemies, I have only interests’ and therefore former PMs are not a cause of worry for him now nor in future, even if he is forced to allow these discredited leaders to return to Pakistan.
General Musharraf have been facing, and even his critics will agree a few very difficult issues namely (1) providing active support to US efforts to combat terrorism, even handing over a large number of militants to US (2) attempts of his assassination (3) pressure of Indian army and US diplomatic influence to curb support to militancy in Kashmir (4) a very strong minded and determined sectarian and ethnic violence with in Pakistan it self (5) nuclear proliferation-Qadir Khan scandal with serious international ramifications(6)International allegation of Pakistan’s involvement in terror links whether in US 9/11, London blasts, Madrid bombing, Bali in Indonesia or Ayodhya in India. (7) Alleged protection to Al –Qaida and (8) hounding and bullying by hardliners in his own country.
It goes to the credit of the General that he has been doing balancing acts rather well and to the satisfaction of US policy makers and White House on one hand and also having initiated reforms in Pakistan’s in general radical and extremist society.
It is because of this background coupled with his continuance as chief of armed forces, he has succeeded in holding the office of President for nearly 8 long years.
Reckoning with above and with US blessings it was more or less certain that in November 2007, Pakistan assembly will approve his continuance as President for next 5 years before it gets dissolved.
Turning Point: At this stage, it is no secret that his intelligence organization gave him an understanding that the above proposed approval of assembly, for certain shall be challenged in the supreme Court on the ground that the same electoral college which elected him in 2004 can not re- elect him in 2007. General was also apprised in no uncertain terms that the procedure would be obstructed and negated by the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJ) –Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry
General Musharraf, over confident of his maneuvering capacity decide to tackle the impending obstacle by asking him first to resign and later placing the CJ under suspension.
The situation got further complicated when interim CJ constituted a 13 member bench to deal with the suspension of. Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
There is a known maxim in the armed forces as per which ‘any body can start a war but it is impossible to predict as to how it will unfold it self’ The CJ’s episode though started as a bar protest but experienced observers consider that it is now proverbial snowball at national level and likely to become a political avalanche.
The counter measures taken by General and his supporting army have proved to be counter productive and has lead to more violence and still louder demand of Generals resignation across the nation. General Musharraf is now back to the wall.
In his own words all his men have deserted him and he is left to fight the battle of Waterloo alone, consequences of which are well known.
So far as India is concerned, the sympathies are with him and Indians wish him well, as following his departure Pakistan may get in to deeper crises and large parts of Pakistan may get in to Talibnisation process which will amount to ‘from frying pan to fire’
White House and US policy makers have bigger stakes and it will be of immense political interest how they view their political ally. On one hand there is a military dictator and on the other hand an impending political chaos with far reaching consequences.

Giant Retailers vs. Small Vendors - India

Recently at Indore in Madhya Pradesh and at Ranchi in Jharkhand small vegetable vendors demonstrated violently against the ‘Reliance Fresh’ departmental store where vegetables are proposed to be sold. It is understood that some more business houses propose to enter retail business by organizing departmental stores chain. Birla, Godrej and Bharti have declared their intention, In fact a tie up with Wal-Mart is under finalization.
Availability of practically all goods, under one roof called departmental stores is a billion dollar business in Europe and USA.Emergence of this model in India has raised many apprehensions, fear, nervousness and uneasiness amongst small vendors, middle men and whole sellers.
The issues involved are (i) Whether elimination of small vendors, middlemen and whole sellers will result in availability of better and economical products to the consumers in the long run or when things get stabilized the business houses will revise costing and pocket the intermediate costs, and consumer will be back to where he was. (ii) Will the traditional middlemen and whole sellers will get really eliminated or a new set of middlemen like marketing, quality, standardization and procurement etc though employees of business houses will emerge. (iii) Will the producer/farmer get a better deal in regard to prices; advances and other supports for their products and (iv) Will this not result in large-scale employment and social upheaval. (v) Will government collect more taxes vis-a vis experience of tax payment by business houses.
Based on an estimate, currently there are 45 million small vendors in the country and on an average 4 persons per vendor form the chain excluding transporters and intermediate stores. In the event of full development of the departmental stores model, around 180-200 million people and their dependents will be affected.
In Europe and in USA studies reveal that wherever Wal-Mart and similar departmental stores have prospered, the number of middlemen has gone up. Farmers/producers return per dollar has come down to a very low level, slowly but surely. Further, as per studies, the farmers are forced to live on government subsidies or they quit. The number of farmers has steadily come down both in Europe and in USA.
Let us look at the other side of the coin namely consumer. With entry of business houses competition is expected to grow. This will result in better availability of quality products economically. The tendency of exploitation of consumers will get under check. There are success stories in Gujarat, TamilNadu and Karnataka states where producers have formed unions to ensure quality and protect their interest.
It is a proven philosophy that no market can survive based on reservation. Market is driven fundamentally on the basis of price, quality and service.
The debatable and disputed question reckoning with above scenario is how to manage the emerging change, the management of change is however must. There is no option.
The answer lies in careful evaluation of models of Europe and USA with super imposition of likely social problems and consumer interest in the context of Indian economic structure. Farmer’s interest cannot be ignored reckoning with lowest ever growth of agriculture in 2006 and steadily declining income of farmers.
Blind acceptance of western models without deep evaluation and objective studies may lead to more harm than good for the rapidly growing- over heated Indian economy.

Monday, June 11, 2007

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