Pakistan - General Musharraf or Benezir Bhutto

The former Prime Ministers (PM) Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto together are together, in launching a campaign in Pakistan for restoring democracy. Both these PMs are unfortunately discredited leaders who have been branded as highly corrupt by General Musharraf. General knows well and rightly also that firstly these leaders will not be able to ignite sentiments of people of Pakistan against him and secondly US will not extend support to them as he is probably the best bet for US in the present circumstances. Musharraf also understands the mind of US President Bush who believes in famous dictum ‘I have no friend and I have no enemies, I have only interests’ and therefore former PMs are not a cause of worry for him now nor in future, even if he is forced to allow these discredited leaders to return to Pakistan.
General Musharraf have been facing, and even his critics will agree a few very difficult issues namely (1) providing active support to US efforts to combat terrorism, even handing over a large number of militants to US (2) attempts of his assassination (3) pressure of Indian army and US diplomatic influence to curb support to militancy in Kashmir (4) a very strong minded and determined sectarian and ethnic violence with in Pakistan it self (5) nuclear proliferation-Qadir Khan scandal with serious international ramifications(6)International allegation of Pakistan’s involvement in terror links whether in US 9/11, London blasts, Madrid bombing, Bali in Indonesia or Ayodhya in India. (7) Alleged protection to Al –Qaida and (8) hounding and bullying by hardliners in his own country.
It goes to the credit of the General that he has been doing balancing acts rather well and to the satisfaction of US policy makers and White House on one hand and also having initiated reforms in Pakistan’s in general radical and extremist society.
It is because of this background coupled with his continuance as chief of armed forces, he has succeeded in holding the office of President for nearly 8 long years.
Reckoning with above and with US blessings it was more or less certain that in November 2007, Pakistan assembly will approve his continuance as President for next 5 years before it gets dissolved.
Turning Point: At this stage, it is no secret that his intelligence organization gave him an understanding that the above proposed approval of assembly, for certain shall be challenged in the supreme Court on the ground that the same electoral college which elected him in 2004 can not re- elect him in 2007. General was also apprised in no uncertain terms that the procedure would be obstructed and negated by the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJ) –Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry
General Musharraf, over confident of his maneuvering capacity decide to tackle the impending obstacle by asking him first to resign and later placing the CJ under suspension.
The situation got further complicated when interim CJ constituted a 13 member bench to deal with the suspension of. Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
There is a known maxim in the armed forces as per which ‘any body can start a war but it is impossible to predict as to how it will unfold it self’ The CJ’s episode though started as a bar protest but experienced observers consider that it is now proverbial snowball at national level and likely to become a political avalanche.
The counter measures taken by General and his supporting army have proved to be counter productive and has lead to more violence and still louder demand of Generals resignation across the nation. General Musharraf is now back to the wall.
In his own words all his men have deserted him and he is left to fight the battle of Waterloo alone, consequences of which are well known.
So far as India is concerned, the sympathies are with him and Indians wish him well, as following his departure Pakistan may get in to deeper crises and large parts of Pakistan may get in to Talibnisation process which will amount to ‘from frying pan to fire’
White House and US policy makers have bigger stakes and it will be of immense political interest how they view their political ally. On one hand there is a military dictator and on the other hand an impending political chaos with far reaching consequences.